Betting
Spread
NIU favouredMarket ARIZ −34.5Ours ARIZ −32.6
ARIZ favouredgap 1.9 toward NIU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| NIU away | +34.5 | 8.0 | +2000 | 4.6% | — |
| ARIZ home | -34.5 | 42.5 | -6500 | 95.4% | — |
| Total | 50.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NIU away | +32.5 | 9.0 | 2.1% | -2.0 |
| ARIZ home | -32.5 | 41.5 | 97.9% | +2.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NIU away | +24.5 | 12.8 | 2.7% | -10.0 |
| ARIZ home | -24.5 | 37.3 | 97.3% | +10.0 |
| Total | 50.0 | | | -0.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | NIU | ARIZ |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.2119th | +6.119th |
| Defence (cards) | -3.4136th | +1.530th |
| Card team rating | -8.5129th | +7.622nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -23.9133rd | +10.733rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.9128th | +0.437th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.6130th | +0.733rd |
| Card line | ARIZ -32.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 44% | 65% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Taron Dickens NIUnot rated by EA · JR
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game34.8
Noah Fifita ARIZ91 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.401
Completion75.4%
TD–INT11-2
Pass attempts, median game33
Pass yards, median game280
Rush yards, median game22
Games this season4
Team throws per game35.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| NIU away | 1-3 | 25% | -3.3 | 2-2 | +0.3 |
| ARIZ home | 0-4 | 0% | -5.3 | 2-2 | -0.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Arizona Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| NIU | G. Weber TE | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 21 | Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Georgia State on Saturday. |
| ARIZ | S. King TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | King is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Bearcats on Saturday. |
| ARIZ | C. Rusk TE | out Leg | Thu, Oct 1 | Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and is not expected to play against the Cincinnati on Saturday. |
| ARIZ | S. Brennan WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cincinnati on Saturday, October 3th. |
| ARIZ | C. Warren III RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cincinnati on Saturday, October 3th. |
| ARIZ | D. Austin S | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury. |
| ARIZ | G. Richardson WR | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 14 | Richardson is nursing with a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period. |