Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). PITT wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
PITT
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
14.7 (20th, offence 36th, defence 15th)
Returning production
40% (pass 59%, rush 67%, receiving 24%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UCF
PITT
pass rate, all downs
43%106th
53%31st
pass rate, standard downs
38%97th
47%26th
pass rate, 1st down
43%68th
47%36th
no-huddle share
73%56th
23%107th
pass rate, passing downs
55%112th
68%44th
pass rate, red zone
24%123rd
57%8th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.754th
26.5110th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
PITT offence
PITT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.294
292
25 of 138
success rate
0.497
292
26 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.249
292
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
292
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
292
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.809
292
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.507
292
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.530
292
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
292
58 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.528
292
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.412
292
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.309
292
39 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.182
292
88 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.233
292
55 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.096
292
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.058
292
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
292
27 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
292
73 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
PITT defence
PITT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
240
18 of 138
success rate
0.287
240
2 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.379
240
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.178
240
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.278
240
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.995
240
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.012
240
28 of 138
pass: success rate
0.306
240
11 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.620
240
93 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.345
240
6 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
240
10 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.777
240
2 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.320
240
137 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.538
240
12 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.688
240
3 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
240
92 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
240
104 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
240
75 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
240
124 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs