Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CIN wins about 83% of the time at a number like ours.
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
CIN
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
9.2 (38th, offence 23rd, defence 63rd)
Returning production
8% (pass 4%, rush 4%, receiving 15%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BC
CIN
pass rate, all downs
46%87th
40%122nd
pass rate, standard downs
32%124th
37%104th
pass rate, 1st down
30%125th
40%90th
no-huddle share
51%81st
68%63rd
pass rate, passing downs
74%22nd
47%131st
pass rate, red zone
36%80th
30%107th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.146th
28.380th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
CIN offence
CIN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.363
270
11 of 138
success rate
0.496
270
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
270
35 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.361
270
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
270
26 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.224
270
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.385
270
34 of 138
pass: success rate
0.509
270
26 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
270
105 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
270
17 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
270
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.677
270
11 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.132
270
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
270
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
270
8 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.107
270
20 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
270
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.011
270
2 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.200
270
95 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
CIN defence
CIN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
270
88 of 138
success rate
0.415
270
87 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
270
60 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.113
270
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.482
270
129 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.828
270
33 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.220
270
93 of 138
pass: success rate
0.378
270
51 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.565
270
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
270
80 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
270
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.217
270
115 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.179
270
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
270
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.947
270
108 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
270
74 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.107
270
84 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
270
54 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.500
270
126 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs