Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TCU wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
UNC
Games
3
Plays per game
60.7
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 88th, defence 34th)
Returning production
28% (pass 10%, rush 54%, receiving 33%)
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNC
TCU
pass rate, all downs
51%46th
52%41st
pass rate, standard downs
46%36th
47%33rd
pass rate, 1st down
48%35th
46%43rd
pass rate, red zone
44%41st
34%88th
no-huddle share
16%115th
97%10th
pass rate, passing downs
62%79th
63%72nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.338th
30.924th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNC offence
UNC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.118
182
86 of 138
success rate
0.484
182
35 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.038
182
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
182
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.534
182
10 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.706
182
130 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.148
182
94 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
182
84 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.452
182
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
182
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.375
182
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.872
182
5 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.125
182
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
182
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
182
65 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
182
51 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.082
182
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
182
62 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.000
182
80 of 138
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
UNC defence
UNC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.019
206
41 of 138
success rate
0.393
206
69 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
206
8 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.058
206
80 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
206
90 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.827
206
32 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
206
37 of 138
pass: success rate
0.376
206
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.242
206
6 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.471
206
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
206
25 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.940
206
88 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.122
206
7 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
206
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.688
206
29 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
206
40 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.097
206
65 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
206
28 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.300
206
38 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs