Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MISS wins about 87% of the time at a number like ours.
MSST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
15.1 (18th, offence 10th, defence 47th)
Returning production
34% (pass 0%, rush 87%, receiving 28%)
MISS
Games
4
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.1 (32nd, offence 12th, defence 75th)
Returning production
50% (pass 79%, rush 84%, receiving 19%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MSST
MISS
pass rate, all downs
48%70th
59%6th
pass rate, standard downs
47%34th
55%2nd
pass rate, 1st down
49%24th
62%1st
no-huddle share
85%33rd
75%55th
pass rate, passing downs
51%127th
70%38th
pass rate, red zone
46%33rd
39%65th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.6131st
24.1135th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MSST offence
MSST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.383
289
9 of 138
success rate
0.512
289
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.320
289
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.327
289
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.544
289
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.017
289
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.531
289
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
289
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
289
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.543
289
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
289
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.344
289
34 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.201
289
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.824
289
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.645
289
28 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
289
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
289
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
289
65 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.800
289
47 of 138
MISS offence
MISS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
276
38 of 138
success rate
0.518
276
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.162
276
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
276
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
276
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
276
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.435
276
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.526
276
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
276
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.568
276
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
276
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.935
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
276
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.760
276
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
276
23 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
276
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
276
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
276
71 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
276
37 of 138
MSST defence
MSST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.018
292
59 of 138
success rate
0.373
292
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
292
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
292
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
292
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
292
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
292
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
292
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.441
292
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.437
292
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
292
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.911
292
82 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
292
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
292
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
292
58 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
292
97 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
292
41 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
292
130 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
292
66 of 138
MISS defence
MISS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.225
276
126 of 138
success rate
0.471
276
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.145
276
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
276
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.478
276
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.952
276
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.302
276
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
276
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.480
276
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.540
276
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
276
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.900
276
76 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
276
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
276
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
276
112 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
276
25 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
276
48 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
276
26 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
276
13 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs