Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LOU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LOU
UK
pass rate, all downs
46%86th
45%97th
pass rate, standard downs
39%91st
42%68th
pass rate, 1st down
41%87th
39%96th
no-huddle share
31%101st
14%117th
pass rate, passing downs
68%51st
56%109th
pass rate, red zone
36%82nd
33%96th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.083rd
30.535th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs