Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AUB wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
AUB
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.4 (31st, offence 53rd, defence 16th)
Returning production
14% (pass 0%, rush 26%, receiving 9%)
ALA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
23.0 (6th, offence 7th, defence 13th)
Returning production
26% (pass 12%, rush -67%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AUB
ALA
pass rate, all downs
51%45th
45%98th
pass rate, standard downs
46%41st
37%103rd
pass rate, 1st down
46%48th
35%110th
no-huddle share
96%11th
6%131st
pass rate, passing downs
63%68th
64%61st
pass rate, red zone
37%76th
32%100th
seconds per play (own drives)
22.3138th
31.714th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AUB offence
AUB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
285
84 of 138
success rate
0.428
285
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.268
285
52 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.187
285
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
285
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.989
285
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.142
285
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.401
285
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.583
285
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
285
106 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.378
285
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.278
285
45 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
285
49 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
285
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.120
285
58 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.151
285
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
285
93 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
285
66 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
285
38 of 138
ALA offence
ALA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.327
267
16 of 138
success rate
0.494
267
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.332
267
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
267
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
267
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
267
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.470
267
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.491
267
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.628
267
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.541
267
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.370
267
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
267
89 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
267
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
267
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.357
267
4 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
267
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
267
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
267
75 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
267
122 of 138
AUB defence
AUB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.009
317
46 of 138
success rate
0.375
317
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.214
317
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.018
317
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
317
38 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.924
317
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.128
317
69 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
317
80 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.494
317
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.417
317
44 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
317
65 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.569
317
39 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.185
317
53 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.682
317
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
317
78 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
317
56 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
317
74 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
317
47 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
317
79 of 138
ALA defence
ALA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.098
249
20 of 138
success rate
0.341
249
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
249
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.174
249
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.311
249
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.913
249
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.018
249
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
249
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.826
249
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.391
249
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.198
249
8 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
249
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.824
249
101 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.189
249
111 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
249
87 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
249
114 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
249
122 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs