Betting
Spread
AUB favouredMarket ALA −10Ours AUB −0.2
ALA favouredgap 10.2 toward AUB
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| AUB away | +10.0 | 21.3 | +330 | 22.3% | — |
| ALA home | -10.0 | 31.3 | -425 | 77.7% | — |
| Total | 52.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| AUB away | 0.0 | 26.4 | 50.5% | -10.0 |
| ALA home | 0.0 | 26.1 | 49.5% | +10.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | AUB | ALA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +7.514th | +5.026th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.024th | +3.112th |
| Card team rating | +9.513th | +8.118th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +11.431st | +23.06th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.528th | +1.25th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.829th | +1.86th |
| Card line | ALA +0.2 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 26% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Byrum Brown AUB89 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.221
Completion64.8%
TD–INT6-5
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game241
Rush yards, median game61
Games this season4
Team throws per game32.5
Keelon Russell ALA84 ▲2 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.577
Completion70.9%
TD–INT8-2
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game288
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| AUB away | 1-3 | 25% | -2.4 | 1-3 | -5.0 |
| ALA home | 3-1 | 75% | +10.5 | 4-0 | +17.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| AUB | day | failed to cover 5 straight — next game covered 53.4% of the time (2811 cases) |
| AUB | division | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| ALA | all | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| ALA | all | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | favourite | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| ALA | favourite | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | day | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| ALA | day | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
| ALA | favourite of 7+ | won 11 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| ALA | favourite of 7+ | gone over 4 straight — next game went over 47.1% of the time (5399 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Bryant-Denny Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| AUB | H. Herring TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th. |
| AUB | E. Smith WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Smith is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and the officials have yet to provide a return date. |
| AUB | N. Davenport RB | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return. |
| ALA | A. Walker WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Walker is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Mississippi State on Saturday, October 3th. |