Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
TENN
Games
4
Plays per game
71.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
17.7 (14th, offence 14th, defence 26th)
Returning production
35% (pass 7%, rush 48%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LSU
TENN
pass rate, all downs
44%101st
42%114th
pass rate, standard downs
39%87th
41%79th
no-huddle share
86%28th
83%40th
pass rate, 1st down
45%54th
41%88th
pass rate, passing downs
56%105th
45%134th
pass rate, red zone
35%86th
31%103rd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.4115th
27.495th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
TENN offence
TENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.224
287
52 of 138
success rate
0.456
287
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.208
287
78 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.311
287
12 of 138
rush: success rate
0.485
287
37 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.113
287
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.172
287
90 of 138
pass: success rate
0.431
287
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
287
119 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.517
287
45 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.300
287
84 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.540
287
16 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
287
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.308
287
5 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
287
73 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
287
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
287
41 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.600
287
67 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
TENN defence
TENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.086
257
22 of 138
success rate
0.358
257
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.064
257
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.081
257
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
257
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.026
257
99 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.144
257
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
257
55 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.095
257
1 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.406
257
34 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
257
58 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.031
257
99 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
257
64 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
257
88 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.227
257
11 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.218
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.148
257
129 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.070
257
97 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.200
257
73 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs