Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MIZ wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
UK
Games
4
Plays per game
63.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.0 (44th, offence 40th, defence 47th)
Returning production
19% (pass -3%, rush -9%, receiving 35%)
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UK
MIZ
pass rate, all downs
45%97th
47%79th
pass rate, standard downs
42%68th
39%90th
pass rate, 1st down
39%96th
34%116th
no-huddle share
14%117th
92%19th
pass rate, red zone
33%96th
29%112th
pass rate, passing downs
56%109th
63%70th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.535th
27.398th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UK offence
UK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
252
47 of 138
success rate
0.516
252
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.203
252
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.209
252
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.548
252
7 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.948
252
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.267
252
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.463
252
53 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.584
252
60 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
252
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.321
252
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.460
252
25 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.156
252
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.765
252
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.875
252
20 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.135
252
61 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.091
252
77 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.044
252
47 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.100
252
96 of 138
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
UK defence
UK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.016
290
57 of 138
success rate
0.417
290
88 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.190
290
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.141
290
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
290
93 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
290
114 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.037
290
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
290
87 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.287
290
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.448
290
69 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.348
290
121 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.806
290
65 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.168
290
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
290
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.577
290
82 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
290
100 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.083
290
43 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.100
290
134 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.900
290
24 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs