Betting
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| UK away | +8.0 | — | 29.9% | — |
| MIZ home | -8.0 | — | 70.1% | — |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | UK | MIZ |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +3.039th | +4.927th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.257th | +1.433rd |
| Card team rating | +3.241st | +6.327th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +8.044th | +13.725th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.435th | +0.534th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.740th | +0.926th |
| Card line | MIZ -8.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 19% | 42% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Kenny Minchey UK81 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.209
Completion68.3%
TD–INT8-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game215
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game25.5
Austin Simmons MIZ82 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.442
Completion65.1%
TD–INT11-0
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game272
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game30.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| UK away | 3-1 | 75% | +5.3 | 3-1 | +6.5 |
| MIZ home | 1-3 | 25% | -5.6 | 2-2 | +1.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| UK | D. Miller WR | questionable Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | Miller exited the game with a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against the Gamecocks on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| UK | L. Watkins TE | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against Texas A&M on Saturday. |
| UK | T. Mizell RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Aug 22 | Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season. |
| MIZ | G. Hoffman TE | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Hoffman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| MIZ | J. Brady WR | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Brady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date. |
| MIZ | C. Green OG | out Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Green is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| MIZ | A. Hardy RB | out Leg | Fri, Sep 11 | Hardy is dealing with a leg injury, and and a timetable for return has yet to be established. |