Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TEX wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
MSST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
15.1 (18th, offence 10th, defence 47th)
Returning production
34% (pass 0%, rush 87%, receiving 28%)
TEX
Games
4
Plays per game
72.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
22.4 (7th, offence 16th, defence 5th)
Returning production
72% (pass 85%, rush 126%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MSST
TEX
pass rate, all downs
48%70th
47%76th
pass rate, standard downs
47%34th
39%94th
pass rate, 1st down
49%24th
42%71st
no-huddle share
85%33rd
91%21st
pass rate, passing downs
51%127th
64%64th
pass rate, red zone
46%33rd
43%48th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.6131st
28.578th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MSST offence
MSST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.383
289
9 of 138
success rate
0.512
289
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.320
289
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.327
289
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.544
289
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.017
289
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.531
289
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
289
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
289
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.543
289
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
289
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.344
289
34 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.201
289
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.824
289
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.645
289
28 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
289
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
289
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
289
65 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.800
289
47 of 138
TEX offence
TEX offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.110
290
90 of 138
success rate
0.455
290
56 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
290
112 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
290
95 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
290
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.790
290
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.280
290
63 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
290
54 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.562
290
66 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
290
62 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.362
290
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.818
290
109 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
290
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
290
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
290
54 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.171
290
111 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.130
290
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.041
290
37 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.900
290
111 of 138
MSST defence
MSST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.018
292
59 of 138
success rate
0.373
292
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
292
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
292
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
292
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
292
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
292
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
292
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.441
292
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.437
292
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
292
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.911
292
82 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
292
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
292
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
292
58 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
292
97 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
292
41 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
292
130 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
292
66 of 138
TEX defence
TEX defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.056
260
29 of 138
success rate
0.350
260
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.094
260
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.074
260
33 of 138
rush: success rate
0.365
260
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.791
260
26 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.033
260
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.331
260
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.432
260
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.397
260
26 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
260
38 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.554
260
37 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.198
260
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
260
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.190
260
10 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.206
260
124 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
260
126 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
260
84 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
260
85 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs