Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MSST wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
MIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
13.7 (25th, offence 40th, defence 14th)
Returning production
42% (pass -2%, rush 78%, receiving 33%)
MSST
Games
4
Plays per game
72.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
15.1 (18th, offence 10th, defence 47th)
Returning production
34% (pass 0%, rush 87%, receiving 28%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MIZ
MSST
pass rate, all downs
47%79th
48%70th
pass rate, standard downs
39%90th
47%34th
pass rate, 1st down
34%116th
49%24th
no-huddle share
92%19th
85%33rd
pass rate, passing downs
63%70th
51%127th
pass rate, red zone
29%112th
46%33rd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.398th
24.6131st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MIZ offence
MIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.199
280
60 of 138
success rate
0.436
280
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
280
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.042
280
98 of 138
rush: success rate
0.400
280
104 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.768
280
121 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.459
280
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
280
49 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.672
280
38 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
280
79 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.330
280
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.099
280
71 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
280
76 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
280
96 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
280
80 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
280
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.086
280
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.082
280
128 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
61.500
280
137 of 138
MSST offence
MSST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.383
289
9 of 138
success rate
0.512
289
16 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.320
289
31 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.327
289
10 of 138
rush: success rate
0.544
289
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.017
289
51 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.531
289
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
289
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
289
36 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.543
289
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
289
8 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.344
289
34 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.201
289
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.824
289
26 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.645
289
28 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
289
35 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
289
26 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
289
65 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.800
289
47 of 138
MIZ defence
MIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
271
48 of 138
success rate
0.354
271
36 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.412
271
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.002
271
58 of 138
rush: success rate
0.363
271
41 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
271
111 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.071
271
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
271
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
271
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
271
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.283
271
73 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.481
271
28 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
271
117 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.867
271
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.263
271
62 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.221
271
130 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
271
118 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.089
271
126 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.200
271
130 of 138
MSST defence
MSST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.018
292
59 of 138
success rate
0.373
292
55 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
292
39 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
292
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.358
292
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
292
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.067
292
50 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
292
64 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.441
292
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.437
292
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.221
292
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.911
292
82 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.158
292
30 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
292
24 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.167
292
58 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
292
97 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
292
41 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
292
130 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
292
66 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs