Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MISS wins about 86% of the time at a number like ours.
MISS
Games
4
Plays per game
69.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
11.1 (32nd, offence 12th, defence 75th)
Returning production
50% (pass 79%, rush 84%, receiving 19%)
FLA
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
18.5 (12th, offence 9th, defence 31st)
Returning production
69% (pass 94%, rush 89%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MISS
FLA
pass rate, all downs
59%6th
38%126th
pass rate, standard downs
55%2nd
30%131st
pass rate, 1st down
62%1st
30%127th
no-huddle share
75%55th
58%75th
pass rate, passing downs
70%38th
62%78th
pass rate, red zone
39%65th
23%124th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.1135th
31.122nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MISS offence
MISS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.252
276
38 of 138
success rate
0.518
276
8 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.162
276
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
276
56 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
276
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.894
276
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.435
276
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.526
276
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.400
276
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.568
276
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.371
276
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.935
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
276
81 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.760
276
63 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.750
276
23 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.127
276
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
276
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.054
276
71 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
276
37 of 138
FLA offence
FLA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.413
285
7 of 138
success rate
0.516
285
10 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.302
285
37 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
285
6 of 138
rush: success rate
0.480
285
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.133
285
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.599
285
8 of 138
pass: success rate
0.585
285
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.557
285
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.571
285
11 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.356
285
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.232
285
53 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
285
29 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
285
1 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.548
285
2 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.091
285
10 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
285
14 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
285
31 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.400
285
114 of 138
MISS defence
MISS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.225
276
126 of 138
success rate
0.471
276
128 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.145
276
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.177
276
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.478
276
128 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.952
276
81 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.302
276
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
276
108 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.480
276
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.540
276
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
276
86 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.900
276
76 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
276
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
276
113 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
276
112 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.130
276
25 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
276
48 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.043
276
26 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
276
13 of 138
FLA defence
FLA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.036
289
36 of 138
success rate
0.405
289
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.146
289
41 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.063
289
35 of 138
rush: success rate
0.391
289
60 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
289
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.116
289
65 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
289
98 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.305
289
15 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
289
63 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.314
289
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.046
289
102 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.109
289
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
289
71 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.045
289
115 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
289
120 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.114
289
96 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
289
127 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.200
289
93 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs