Line has moved -1.0 since we first saw it (FLA -3 to FLA -4).
Betting
Spread
MISS favouredMarket FLA −4Ours MISS −16.9
FLA favouredgap 20.9 toward MISS
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MISS away | +4.0 | 27.3 | +142 | 39.6% | 39% |
| FLA home | -4.0 | 31.3 | -170 | 60.4% | 62% |
| Total | 58.5 | |
FLA -3 when first seen, now FLA -4 · total 60.5 then, 58.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MISS away | -17.0 | 37.7 | 86.6% | -21.0 |
| FLA home | +17.0 | 20.8 | 13.4% | +21.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MISS away | -4.0 | 32.4 | 61.4% | -8.0 |
| FLA home | +4.0 | 28.3 | 38.6% | +8.0 |
| Total | 60.7 | | | +2.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MISS | FLA |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.92nd | +1.350th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.58th | +2.714th |
| Card team rating | +14.44th | +4.038th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +11.132nd | +18.512th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.815th | +0.816th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.023rd | +1.314th |
| Card line | FLA +16.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 50% | 69% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Trinidad Chambliss MISS95 ▲2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.395
Completion70.8%
TD–INT8-3
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game317
Rush yards, median game23
Games this season4
Team throws per game38.0
Aaron Philo FLA77 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.563
Completion72.4%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game22
Pass yards, median game223
Rush yards, median game17
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MISS away | 1-3 | 25% | -6.3 | 2-2 | +8.5 |
| FLA home | 3-1 | 75% | +9.6 | 3-1 | +16.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · grass · 148 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 83°F, wind 5 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | MISS 6 days · FLA 6 days |
| Travel | MISS 532 miles, body clock 2:30pm at kickoff, -334 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Kewan Lacy MISS — out (HeadlineNews, 2026-09-26)
Star running back ruled out due to left shoulder injury.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MISS | K. Lacy RB | out Shoulder | Sat, Sep 26 | Lacy is nursing with a shoulder injury, and he is not projected to face against Gators on Saturday. |
| MISS | M. Frazier RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Frazier is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Gators on Saturday. |
| FLA | E. Singleton Jr. WR | probable Ankle | Mon, Sep 28 | Singleton Jr is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to be active against Missouri on Saturday. |
| FLA | B. Stockton WR | questionable Back | Mon, Sep 28 | Stockton is hampered by back injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on Saturday. |
| FLA | V. Brown III WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Brown III exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Missouri on October 3rd. |
| FLA | D. Groce WR | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 7 | Groce is sidelined with a back injury, and there is no timetable for his return. |
| FLA | K. Jimenez RB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Jimenez is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.