Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARK wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
TLSA
Games
4
Plays per game
64.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 101st, defence 60th)
Returning production
41% (pass 69%, rush 11%, receiving 42%)
ARK
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-0.3 (70th, offence 59th, defence 90th)
Returning production
14% (pass 19%, rush 14%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TLSA
ARK
pass rate, all downs
48%72nd
58%8th
pass rate, standard downs
46%37th
47%27th
pass rate, 1st down
42%74th
51%20th
no-huddle share
67%64th
88%26th
pass rate, passing downs
51%126th
77%11th
pass rate, red zone
44%38th
38%71st
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8105th
28.776th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TLSA offence
TLSA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.117
257
88 of 138
success rate
0.405
257
101 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.142
257
113 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.227
257
32 of 138
rush: success rate
0.447
257
71 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.035
257
42 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.011
257
121 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
257
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.344
257
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.532
257
39 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.151
257
138 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
257
42 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.121
257
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
257
5 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
257
120 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
257
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
257
33 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
257
111 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
257
69 of 138
ARK offence
ARK offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.049
306
109 of 138
success rate
0.422
306
90 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
306
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.075
306
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.386
306
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.566
306
137 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.181
306
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.450
306
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.460
306
95 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
306
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
306
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.579
306
127 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.181
306
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
306
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
306
93 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.180
306
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
306
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.088
306
135 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
306
57 of 138
TLSA defence
TLSA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.070
306
25 of 138
success rate
0.386
306
63 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.035
306
11 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.118
306
24 of 138
rush: success rate
0.415
306
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.609
306
9 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.066
306
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
306
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.443
306
45 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.428
306
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.305
306
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.838
306
68 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
306
66 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
306
31 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
306
13 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
306
45 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.082
306
42 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
306
85 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
306
106 of 138
ARK defence
ARK defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
229
106 of 138
success rate
0.432
229
99 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.110
229
28 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.193
229
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
229
113 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.906
229
68 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.160
229
77 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
229
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.363
229
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.527
229
129 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.188
229
5 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.226
229
117 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
229
24 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.875
229
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.143
229
135 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
229
41 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.096
229
63 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.048
229
36 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.800
229
31 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs