Line has moved -0.5 since we first saw it (ARK -6.5 to ARK -7).
Betting
Spread
TLSA favouredMarket ARK −7Ours ARK −9.6
ARK favouredgap 2.6 toward ARK
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TLSA away | +7.0 | 22.3 | +220 | 30.0% | 30% |
| ARK home | -7.0 | 29.3 | -270 | 70.0% | 71% |
| Total | 51.5 | |
ARK -6.5 when first seen, now ARK -7 · total 53.5 then, 51.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TLSA away | +9.5 | 21.0 | 26.0% | +2.5 |
| ARK home | -9.5 | 30.5 | 74.0% | -2.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TLSA away | +13.0 | 20.3 | 19.2% | +6.0 |
| ARK home | -13.0 | 33.2 | 80.8% | -6.0 |
| Total | 53.5 | | | +2.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TLSA | ARK |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -4.7111th | -0.970th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.553rd | +0.552nd |
| Card team rating | -4.293rd | -0.466th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.483rd | -0.370th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.5102nd | +0.156th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.593rd | +0.163rd |
| Card line | ARK -9.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 41% | 14% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Dexter Williams II TLSA72 ▲2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.023
Completion57.6%
TD–INT3-0
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game164
Rush yards, median game8
Games this season3
Team throws per game28.8
KJ Jackson ARK74 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.242
Completion62.1%
TD–INT5-3
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game240
Rush yards, median game28
Games this season4
Team throws per game40.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TLSA away | 2-3 | 40% | -0.4 | 1-4 | -5.7 |
| ARK home | 1-3 | 25% | -6.4 | 1-3 | -6.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Razorback Stadium · turf · 1325 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 80°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | TLSA 7 days · ARK 7 days |
| Travel | TLSA 99 miles, body clock 7:00pm at kickoff, +552 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TLSA | G. Tempest WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Tempest is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| TLSA | J. Calloway WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Calloway is dealing due to an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| TLSA | B. Hayes QB | questionable Knee | Sun, Sep 27 | Hayes is dealing due to a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against North Texas on Thursday, October 1th. |
| ARK | H. Hendrix TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Texas A&M on Saturday, October 3th. |
| ARK | M. Lassiter TE | out Upper Body | Sun, Aug 16 | Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury. |