Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ALA wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
FSU
Games
4
Plays per game
62.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
5.7 (53rd, offence 35th, defence 74th)
Returning production
40% (pass 13%, rush 28%, receiving 65%)
ALA
Games
4
Plays per game
66.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
23.0 (6th, offence 7th, defence 13th)
Returning production
26% (pass 12%, rush -67%, receiving 41%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
FSU
ALA
pass rate, all downs
44%102nd
45%98th
pass rate, standard downs
35%113th
37%103rd
pass rate, 1st down
35%112th
35%110th
no-huddle share
69%61st
6%131st
pass rate, passing downs
64%60th
64%61st
pass rate, red zone
35%83rd
32%100th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.069th
31.714th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
FSU offence
FSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.247
249
41 of 138
success rate
0.434
249
80 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.526
249
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.224
249
34 of 138
rush: success rate
0.442
249
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.131
249
16 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.367
249
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.423
249
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
2.061
249
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
249
107 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.392
249
21 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.196
249
60 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
249
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
126 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.885
249
18 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.145
249
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.080
249
52 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
249
93 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
249
55 of 138
ALA offence
ALA offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.327
267
16 of 138
success rate
0.494
267
29 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.332
267
26 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
267
28 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
267
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
267
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.470
267
20 of 138
pass: success rate
0.491
267
34 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.628
267
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.541
267
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.370
267
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.993
267
89 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
267
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
267
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.357
267
4 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
267
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
267
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
267
75 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.400
267
122 of 138
FSU defence
FSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.219
276
125 of 138
success rate
0.435
276
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.350
276
111 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.134
276
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
276
79 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.959
276
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.325
276
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
276
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.654
276
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
276
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
276
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
276
95 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
276
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.929
276
135 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.524
276
80 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.156
276
58 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
276
75 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
49 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
276
95 of 138
ALA defence
ALA defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.098
249
20 of 138
success rate
0.341
249
23 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
249
122 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.174
249
13 of 138
rush: success rate
0.311
249
15 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.913
249
69 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.018
249
27 of 138
pass: success rate
0.358
249
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.826
249
124 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.391
249
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
249
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.198
249
8 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.244
249
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
249
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.824
249
101 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.189
249
111 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
249
87 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
249
114 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
249
122 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs