Win chance
MTL winsDraftKings 50%Ours 56%
PIT winsours is 5.6 pts toward PIT
Grey dot: DraftKings · gold: our composite · small dots: Kalshi, DRatings and Paine Elo (hover to see which). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Who wins
| Source | PIT wins | MTL wins | Basis |
|---|
| DraftKings | 50.0% | 50.0% | moneyline -110 / -110, margin removed |
| Pinnacle | — | — | not posted yet |
| Kalshi | 48.5% | 51.5% | winner market, bid/ask midpoint, locked before puck drop |
| Composite ours | 55.6% | 44.4% | xG share + goalie + special teams + rest · goalies: most starts this season / most starts this season |
| DRatings public model | — | — | not published yet |
| Neil Paine Elo public model | — | — | not published for this game |
The pickers see DraftKings, Pinnacle and Kalshi. They never see the composite, DRatings or Paine's Elo - opinions get copied.
Goalies
| Team | Goalie | Status | Reported | GSAx | Sv% | GP |
|---|
| MTL | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
| PIT | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
DailyFaceoff's starter and status; "not reported" is its projection before any news. GSAx (goals saved above expected) and Sv% are this season's (MoneyPuck).
Rest and travel
| Team | Rest days | Back-to-back | 3 in 4 | Km | Time zones | Trip/stand game |
|---|
| MTL | 3 | no | no | 360 | 0 | 2 |
| PIT | 2 | no | no | 414 | 0 | 1 |
Who is outESPN
| Team | Player | Status | Note |
|---|
| MTL | Oliver Kapanen | Day-To-Day | day-to-day |
| MTL | Bryce Pickford | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| MTL | Lucas Condotta | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| MTL | Kaiden Guhle | Injured Reserve | Guhle (groin) was placed on injured reserve by the Canadiens on Monday. |
| PIT | Ben Kindel | Injured Reserve | Kindel (lower body) was cleared to take contact during Thursday's practice, Wes Crosby of NHL.com reports. |
| PIT | Blake Lizotte | Day-To-Day | day-to-day |
| PIT | Andrei Kuzmenko | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| PIT | Bryan Rust | Injured Reserve | ir |
| PIT | Justin Brazeau | Injured Reserve | Brazeau (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Penguins on Sunday. |
| PIT | Ryan Graves | Injured Reserve | Graves (lower body) is out indefinitely and was placed on injured reserve Sunday. |