Win chance
WSH winsDraftKings 57%Ours 61%
TBL winsours is 3.7 pts toward TBL
Grey dot: DraftKings · gold: our composite · small dots: Kalshi, DRatings and Paine Elo (hover to see which). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Who wins
| Source | TBL wins | WSH wins | Basis |
|---|
| DraftKings | 57.2% | 42.8% | moneyline +124 / -148, margin removed |
| Pinnacle | — | — | not posted yet |
| Kalshi | 57.5% | 42.5% | winner market, bid/ask midpoint, locked before puck drop |
| Composite ours | 60.9% | 39.1% | xG share + goalie + special teams + rest · goalies: most starts last season / most starts last season |
| DRatings public model | — | — | not published yet |
| Neil Paine Elo public model | — | — | not published for this game |
The pickers see DraftKings, Pinnacle and Kalshi. They never see the composite, DRatings or Paine's Elo - opinions get copied.
Goalies
| Team | Goalie | Status | Reported | GSAx | Sv% | GP |
|---|
| WSH | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
| TBL | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
DailyFaceoff's starter and status; "not reported" is its projection before any news. GSAx (goals saved above expected) and Sv% are this season's (MoneyPuck).
Rest and travel
| Team | Rest days | Back-to-back | 3 in 4 | Km | Time zones | Trip/stand game |
|---|
| WSH | 0 | yes | no | 942 | 0 | 2 |
| TBL | 1 | no | no | 1620 | 0 | 1 |
Who is outESPN
| Team | Player | Status | Note |
|---|
| TBL | Yanni Gourde | Injured Reserve | Gourde (hip) was placed on the injured non-roster list Monday. |
| TBL | Dominic James | Injured Reserve | The Lightning placed James (hand) on non-roster injured reserve Monday. |
| WSH | Patrick Thomas | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| WSH | Rasmus Sandin | Injured Reserve | Sandin (knee) will begin the 2026-27 regular season on the injured non-roster list. |