Who wins
| Source | TOR wins | MTL wins | Basis |
|---|
| DraftKings | 51.1% | 48.9% | moneyline -105 / -115, margin removed |
| Pinnacle | 50.0% | 50.0% | moneyline -105 / -105 · takes up to $15000 |
| Kalshi | 50.5% | 49.5% | winner market, bid/ask midpoint, locked before puck drop |
| Composite ours | — | — | not built yet |
| DRatings public model | 48.7% | 51.3% | projects 3.30–3.16 |
| Neil Paine Elo public model | 46.0% | 54.0% | team Elo from results (Substack tracker) |
The pickers see DraftKings, Pinnacle and Kalshi. They never see the composite, DRatings or Paine's Elo - opinions get copied.
Goalies
| Team | Goalie | Status | Reported | GSAx | Sv% | GP |
|---|
| MTL | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
| TOR | — | unknown | | — | — | — |
DailyFaceoff's starter and status; "not reported" is its projection before any news. GSAx (goals saved above expected) and Sv% are this season's (MoneyPuck).
Rest and travel
| Team | Rest days | Back-to-back | 3 in 4 | Km | Time zones | Trip/stand game |
|---|
| MTL | — | no | no | 504 | 0 | 1 |
| TOR | — | no | no | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Referees
Jon McIsaac, Francis Charron
announced 80 min before puck drop · linesmen Brandon Gawryletz, Kiel Murchison
Who is outESPN
| Team | Player | Status | Note |
|---|
| MTL | Oliver Kapanen | Day-To-Day | day-to-day |
| MTL | Bryce Pickford | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| MTL | Lucas Condotta | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| MTL | Kaiden Guhle | Injured Reserve | Guhle (groin) was placed on injured reserve by the Canadiens on Monday. |
| TOR | Dakota Joshua | Injured Reserve | Joshua (abdomen) has been moved from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve, PuckPedia reports Wednesday. |
| TOR | Max Domi | Injured Reserve | Domi (back) was transferred from the non-roster list to long-term injured reserve Wednesday, per PuckPedia. |
| TOR | Cade Webber | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |
| TOR | Elvis Merzlikins | Injured Reserve | Merzlikins is expected to miss 4-6 months to begin the 2026-27 regular season while recovering from a shoulder injury, per Luke Fox of Sportsnet. |
| TOR | William Villeneuve | Injured Reserve | ir-nr |