Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LT wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
USM
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-18.4 (128th, offence 115th, defence 132nd)
Returning production
90% (pass 97%, rush 102%, receiving 82%)
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USM
LT
pass rate, all downs
53%32nd
50%53rd
pass rate, standard downs
46%38th
42%69th
pass rate, 1st down
42%79th
47%37th
pass rate, red zone
26%121st
41%57th
no-huddle share
59%72nd
67%65th
pass rate, passing downs
70%35th
66%55th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.1127th
27.986th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USM offence
USM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.063
286
103 of 138
success rate
0.430
286
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
286
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.190
286
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
286
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
286
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.000
286
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
286
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
286
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.493
286
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
286
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.582
286
13 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.090
286
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
286
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.091
286
59 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
286
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
286
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
286
134 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
286
9 of 138
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
USM defence
USM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
298
94 of 138
success rate
0.406
298
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
298
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.189
298
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.453
298
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
298
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.209
298
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
298
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.731
298
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.425
298
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.363
298
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.197
298
114 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
298
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
298
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.960
298
46 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
298
29 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
298
49 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
298
29 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
298
83 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs