Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TROY wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LT
TROY
pass rate, all downs
50%53rd
50%59th
pass rate, standard downs
42%69th
40%82nd
pass rate, 1st down
47%37th
42%77th
no-huddle share
67%65th
96%12th
pass rate, passing downs
66%55th
69%43rd
pass rate, red zone
41%57th
58%6th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.986th
29.364th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs