Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MRSH wins about 84% of the time at a number like ours.
MRSH
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-12.5 (115th, offence 82nd, defence 134th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 210%, receiving 91%)
ODU
Games
4
Plays per game
59.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-7.9 (101st, offence 117th, defence 73rd)
Returning production
9% (pass -2%, rush 10%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MRSH
ODU
pass rate, all downs
48%69th
47%75th
pass rate, standard downs
38%100th
39%92nd
pass rate, 1st down
35%113th
42%72nd
no-huddle share
85%32nd
86%30th
pass rate, passing downs
69%40th
60%88th
pass rate, red zone
43%45th
30%110th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.560th
28.973rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MRSH offence
MRSH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.088
268
99 of 138
success rate
0.418
268
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.212
268
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.086
268
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.417
268
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
268
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.365
268
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
268
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.647
268
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
268
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
268
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
268
86 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.216
268
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
268
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
268
128 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
268
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
268
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
268
60 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
268
27 of 138
ODU offence
ODU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.100
239
135 of 138
success rate
0.310
239
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.483
239
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.076
239
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.331
239
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.298
239
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
239
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.290
239
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.677
239
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.299
239
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
239
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.613
239
138 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.315
239
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
239
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.913
239
124 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.243
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.205
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
239
25 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
239
61 of 138
MRSH defence
MRSH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.332
269
137 of 138
success rate
0.472
269
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.322
269
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
269
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
269
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.802
269
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.533
269
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
269
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.819
269
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.544
269
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
269
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.276
269
122 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.152
269
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
269
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.174
269
118 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
269
12 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
269
10 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
43 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.700
269
62 of 138
ODU defence
ODU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.017
298
44 of 138
success rate
0.339
298
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.242
298
79 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.106
298
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.318
298
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.963
298
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.102
298
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
298
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.578
298
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
298
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
298
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.389
298
24 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
298
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
298
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
298
66 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
298
76 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
298
116 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
298
11 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.000
298
4 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs