Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ULM wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
USM
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-18.4 (128th, offence 115th, defence 132nd)
Returning production
90% (pass 97%, rush 102%, receiving 82%)
ULM
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
-29.0 (138th, offence 131st, defence 138th)
Returning production
39% (pass 78%, rush 16%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USM
ULM
pass rate, all downs
53%32nd
50%56th
pass rate, standard downs
46%38th
40%85th
pass rate, 1st down
42%79th
38%102nd
pass rate, red zone
26%121st
44%43rd
no-huddle share
59%72nd
95%14th
pass rate, passing downs
70%35th
75%16th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.1127th
27.985th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USM offence
USM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.063
286
103 of 138
success rate
0.430
286
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
286
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.190
286
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
286
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
286
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.000
286
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
286
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
286
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.493
286
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
286
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.582
286
13 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.090
286
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
286
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.091
286
59 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
286
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
286
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
286
134 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
286
9 of 138
ULM offence
ULM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.052
271
130 of 138
success rate
0.402
271
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.119
271
119 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.070
271
88 of 138
rush: success rate
0.432
271
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.879
271
90 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.082
271
134 of 138
pass: success rate
0.386
271
106 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
271
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
271
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
271
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.968
271
91 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.152
271
52 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
271
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
271
131 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.170
271
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.100
271
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.070
271
112 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.900
271
33 of 138
USM defence
USM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
298
94 of 138
success rate
0.406
298
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
298
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.189
298
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.453
298
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
298
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.209
298
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
298
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.731
298
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.425
298
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.363
298
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.197
298
114 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
298
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
298
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.960
298
46 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
298
29 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
298
49 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
298
29 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
298
83 of 138
ULM defence
ULM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.308
295
135 of 138
success rate
0.508
295
137 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.215
295
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.314
295
136 of 138
rush: success rate
0.522
295
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.077
295
115 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.339
295
118 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
295
130 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.413
295
34 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
295
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.427
295
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.418
295
130 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.161
295
32 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
295
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.448
295
125 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.064
295
8 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.051
295
42 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.600
295
41 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs