Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TROY wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
USM
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-18.4 (128th, offence 115th, defence 132nd)
Returning production
90% (pass 97%, rush 102%, receiving 82%)
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
USM
TROY
pass rate, all downs
53%32nd
50%59th
pass rate, standard downs
46%38th
40%82nd
pass rate, 1st down
42%79th
42%77th
pass rate, red zone
26%121st
58%6th
no-huddle share
59%72nd
96%12th
pass rate, passing downs
70%35th
69%43rd
seconds per play (own drives)
25.1127th
29.364th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
USM offence
USM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.063
286
103 of 138
success rate
0.430
286
83 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
286
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.190
286
40 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
286
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
286
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.000
286
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
286
93 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
286
103 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.493
286
68 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.272
286
105 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.582
286
13 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.090
286
2 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
286
18 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.091
286
59 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
286
90 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.070
286
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.087
286
134 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
286
9 of 138
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
USM defence
USM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.123
298
94 of 138
success rate
0.406
298
81 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
298
90 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.189
298
125 of 138
rush: success rate
0.453
298
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
298
104 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.209
298
88 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
298
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.731
298
117 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.425
298
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.363
298
125 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.197
298
114 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
298
50 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
298
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.960
298
46 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
298
29 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.087
298
49 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
298
29 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
298
83 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs