Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). DEL wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
DEL
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-10.7 (110th, offence 100th, defence 108th)
Returning production
85% (pass 96%, rush 88%, receiving 77%)
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
DEL
NMSU
pass rate, all downs
56%19th
56%18th
pass rate, standard downs
48%21st
49%14th
pass rate, 1st down
49%28th
48%34th
pass rate, red zone
44%42nd
50%18th
no-huddle share
72%59th
82%42nd
pass rate, passing downs
72%30th
71%31st
seconds per play (own drives)
27.0101st
26.2117th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
DEL offence
DEL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
262
114 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
262
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.046
262
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
262
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.780
262
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.157
262
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
262
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.735
262
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
262
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.226
262
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.717
262
118 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
262
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
262
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
262
89 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
262
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.103
262
137 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
262
52 of 138
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
DEL defence
DEL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.388
294
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
294
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.060
294
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
294
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
294
39 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.274
294
104 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
294
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
294
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
294
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
294
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.903
294
79 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
294
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
294
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.800
294
34 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
104 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.109
294
89 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
294
103 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
294
77 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs