Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SHSU wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
SHSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
13.5
SP+
-14.1 (117th, offence 113th, defence 112th)
Returning production
58% (pass -31%, rush -3%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NMSU
SHSU
pass rate, all downs
56%18th
59%7th
pass rate, standard downs
49%14th
52%7th
pass rate, 1st down
48%34th
56%5th
no-huddle share
82%42nd
83%38th
pass rate, passing downs
71%31st
73%26th
pass rate, red zone
50%18th
54%11th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2117th
29.852nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
SHSU offence
SHSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
280
93 of 138
success rate
0.439
280
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.283
280
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
280
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
280
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
280
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
280
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
280
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
280
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
280
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
280
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.799
280
112 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
280
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
280
120 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.458
280
95 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.175
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
280
96 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
280
31 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
SHSU defence
SHSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.065
263
74 of 138
success rate
0.388
263
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.259
263
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.204
263
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.434
263
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.157
263
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.058
263
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.330
263
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
263
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.445
263
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
263
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
263
104 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
263
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
263
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
263
40 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
263
132 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.125
263
114 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
263
132 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
263
53 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs