Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SHSU wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
WKU
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-16.4 (123rd, offence 107th, defence 131st)
Returning production
84% (pass 95%, rush 55%, receiving 85%)
SHSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
13.5
SP+
-14.1 (117th, offence 113th, defence 112th)
Returning production
58% (pass -31%, rush -3%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WKU
SHSU
pass rate, all downs
52%39th
59%7th
pass rate, standard downs
44%49th
52%7th
pass rate, 1st down
42%80th
56%5th
no-huddle share
75%54th
83%38th
pass rate, passing downs
66%54th
73%26th
pass rate, red zone
50%22nd
54%11th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.0123rd
29.852nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WKU offence
WKU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.006
285
121 of 138
success rate
0.375
285
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.261
285
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
285
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
285
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
285
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.125
285
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
285
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.856
285
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.433
285
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
285
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.695
285
120 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
285
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
285
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
285
83 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
285
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
285
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.035
285
21 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
285
70 of 138
SHSU offence
SHSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
280
93 of 138
success rate
0.439
280
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.283
280
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
280
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
280
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
280
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
280
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
280
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
280
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
280
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
280
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.799
280
112 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
280
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
280
120 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.458
280
95 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.175
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
280
96 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
280
31 of 138
WKU defence
WKU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.303
258
134 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
114 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
258
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
258
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
258
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.232
258
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.242
258
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
258
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.727
258
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
258
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
258
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
258
136 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
258
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
258
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.962
258
131 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
258
23 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
258
27 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
258
50 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
258
87 of 138
SHSU defence
SHSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.065
263
74 of 138
success rate
0.388
263
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.259
263
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.204
263
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.434
263
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.157
263
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.058
263
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.330
263
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
263
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.445
263
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
263
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
263
104 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
263
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
263
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
263
40 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
263
132 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.125
263
114 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
263
132 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
263
53 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs