Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LIB wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
LIB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
2.5 (62nd, offence 63rd, defence 54th)
Returning production
38% (pass 75%, rush 45%, receiving 21%)
KENN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-11.7 (113th, offence 108th, defence 101st)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -4%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LIB
KENN
pass rate, all downs
39%125th
50%51st
pass rate, standard downs
30%130th
47%28th
pass rate, 1st down
30%128th
53%12th
no-huddle share
77%50th
85%34th
pass rate, passing downs
62%76th
58%99th
pass rate, red zone
38%72nd
32%97th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.827th
26.2118th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LIB offence
LIB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
266
82 of 138
success rate
0.462
266
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.131
266
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.001
266
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.475
266
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.689
266
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.381
266
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
266
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.921
266
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
266
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
266
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.324
266
36 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.113
266
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
266
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.643
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
266
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
266
68 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
266
118 of 138
KENN offence
KENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
272
95 of 138
success rate
0.460
272
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.051
272
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.157
272
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
272
25 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
272
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.103
272
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.438
272
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.128
272
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
272
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
272
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.314
272
38 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
272
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
272
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.167
272
57 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
272
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
272
73 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.200
272
29 of 138
LIB defence
LIB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
245
71 of 138
success rate
0.355
245
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.386
245
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
245
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.084
245
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.039
245
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.322
245
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
245
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.396
245
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
245
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.019
245
97 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
245
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
245
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
245
39 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
245
110 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
245
90 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
245
110 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
245
63 of 138
KENN defence
KENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
251
102 of 138
success rate
0.426
251
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.089
251
22 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
251
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
251
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
251
66 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.264
251
100 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
251
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
251
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
251
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
251
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
251
111 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
251
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
251
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.826
251
102 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
251
3 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
251
32 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
251
6 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
251
49 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs