Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). DEL wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
LIB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
2.5 (62nd, offence 63rd, defence 54th)
Returning production
38% (pass 75%, rush 45%, receiving 21%)
DEL
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
-10.7 (110th, offence 100th, defence 108th)
Returning production
85% (pass 96%, rush 88%, receiving 77%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LIB
DEL
pass rate, all downs
39%125th
56%19th
pass rate, standard downs
30%130th
48%21st
pass rate, 1st down
30%128th
49%28th
no-huddle share
77%50th
72%59th
pass rate, passing downs
62%76th
72%30th
pass rate, red zone
38%72nd
44%42nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.827th
27.0101st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LIB offence
LIB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
266
82 of 138
success rate
0.462
266
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.131
266
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.001
266
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.475
266
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.689
266
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.381
266
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
266
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.921
266
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
266
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
266
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.324
266
36 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.113
266
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
266
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.643
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
266
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
266
68 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
266
118 of 138
DEL offence
DEL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
262
114 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
116 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.267
262
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.046
262
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
262
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.780
262
119 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.157
262
92 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
262
116 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.735
262
29 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.479
262
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.226
262
128 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.717
262
118 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.209
262
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.647
262
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
262
89 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
262
136 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
113 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.103
262
137 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
262
52 of 138
LIB defence
LIB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
245
71 of 138
success rate
0.355
245
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.386
245
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
245
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.084
245
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.039
245
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.322
245
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
245
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.396
245
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
245
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.019
245
97 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
245
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
245
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
245
39 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
245
110 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
245
90 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
245
110 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
245
63 of 138
DEL defence
DEL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.080
294
79 of 138
success rate
0.388
294
65 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.312
294
100 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.060
294
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.378
294
52 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.843
294
39 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.274
294
104 of 138
pass: success rate
0.414
294
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
294
97 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
294
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.262
294
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.903
294
79 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.150
294
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
294
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.800
294
34 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.184
294
104 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.109
294
89 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
294
103 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.400
294
77 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs