Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LIB wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
LIB
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
2.5 (62nd, offence 63rd, defence 54th)
Returning production
38% (pass 75%, rush 45%, receiving 21%)
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LIB
NMSU
pass rate, all downs
39%125th
56%18th
pass rate, standard downs
30%130th
49%14th
pass rate, 1st down
30%128th
48%34th
no-huddle share
77%50th
82%42nd
pass rate, passing downs
62%76th
71%31st
pass rate, red zone
38%72nd
50%18th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.827th
26.2117th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LIB offence
LIB offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.124
266
82 of 138
success rate
0.462
266
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.131
266
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.001
266
113 of 138
rush: success rate
0.475
266
42 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.689
266
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.381
266
36 of 138
pass: success rate
0.449
266
62 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.921
266
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.487
266
75 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.400
266
17 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.324
266
36 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.113
266
10 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
266
61 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.643
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.147
266
78 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
84 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
266
68 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
266
118 of 138
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
LIB defence
LIB defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
245
71 of 138
success rate
0.355
245
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.386
245
123 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
114 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
245
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.084
245
117 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.039
245
41 of 138
pass: success rate
0.322
245
16 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
245
122 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.396
245
25 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
245
77 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.019
245
97 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
245
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
245
76 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
245
39 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
245
110 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.110
245
90 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.078
245
110 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
245
63 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs