Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JXST wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
JXST
Games
5
Plays per game
61.6
Drives per game
9.6
SP+
-2.2 (77th, offence 70th, defence 87th)
Returning production
50% (pass 76%, rush 42%, receiving 49%)
WKU
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-16.4 (123rd, offence 107th, defence 131st)
Returning production
84% (pass 95%, rush 55%, receiving 85%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
JXST
WKU
pass rate, all downs
46%90th
52%39th
pass rate, standard downs
41%71st
44%49th
pass rate, 1st down
49%26th
42%80th
no-huddle share
41%89th
75%54th
pass rate, passing downs
58%97th
66%54th
pass rate, red zone
32%99th
50%22nd
seconds per play (own drives)
30.629th
26.0123rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
JXST offence
JXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.204
308
58 of 138
success rate
0.481
308
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.192
308
89 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
308
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
308
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
308
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.383
308
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.507
308
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.500
308
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.524
308
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
308
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.122
308
70 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
308
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.815
308
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.286
308
107 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
308
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
308
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
308
57 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.300
308
5 of 138
WKU offence
WKU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.006
285
121 of 138
success rate
0.375
285
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.261
285
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
285
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
285
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
285
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.125
285
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
285
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.856
285
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.433
285
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
285
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.695
285
120 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
285
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
285
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
285
83 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
285
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
285
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.035
285
21 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
285
70 of 138
JXST defence
JXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
324
70 of 138
success rate
0.423
324
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.046
324
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.087
324
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
324
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
324
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
324
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
324
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
324
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
324
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.236
324
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.915
324
84 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
324
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
324
118 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
324
79 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
324
57 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
324
71 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
324
53 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
324
108 of 138
WKU defence
WKU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.303
258
134 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
114 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
258
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
258
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
258
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.232
258
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.242
258
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
258
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.727
258
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
258
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
258
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
258
136 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
258
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
258
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.962
258
131 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
258
23 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
258
27 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
258
50 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
258
87 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs