Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). UL wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
UL
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.0 (80th, offence 83rd, defence 82nd)
Returning production
92% (pass 101%, rush 82%, receiving 92%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TROY
UL
pass rate, all downs
50%59th
39%123rd
pass rate, standard downs
40%82nd
33%120th
pass rate, 1st down
42%77th
33%119th
no-huddle share
96%12th
59%73rd
pass rate, passing downs
69%43rd
53%120th
pass rate, red zone
58%6th
22%126th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.364th
31.417th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
UL offence
UL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
273
78 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
273
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
273
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
273
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.123
273
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
273
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.451
273
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.257
273
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
273
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
273
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.059
273
78 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
273
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
273
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.793
273
75 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
273
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.117
273
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.033
273
17 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
273
125 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
UL defence
UL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
242
3 of 138
success rate
0.397
242
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.984
242
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.305
242
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.418
242
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.504
242
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.127
242
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
242
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.429
242
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
242
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.651
242
53 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.245
242
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
242
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.455
242
126 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
96 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
102 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
242
86 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.200
242
121 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs