Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LT wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
UL
Games
4
Plays per game
68.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-3.0 (80th, offence 83rd, defence 82nd)
Returning production
92% (pass 101%, rush 82%, receiving 92%)
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UL
LT
pass rate, all downs
39%123rd
50%53rd
pass rate, standard downs
33%120th
42%69th
pass rate, 1st down
33%119th
47%37th
no-huddle share
59%73rd
67%65th
pass rate, passing downs
53%120th
66%55th
pass rate, red zone
22%126th
41%57th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.417th
27.986th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UL offence
UL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.132
273
78 of 138
success rate
0.425
273
85 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
273
95 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.154
273
55 of 138
rush: success rate
0.421
273
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.123
273
19 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.256
273
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.451
273
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.257
273
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.475
273
88 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
273
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.059
273
78 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.183
273
89 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
273
66 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.793
273
75 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
273
80 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.117
273
122 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.033
273
17 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
273
125 of 138
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
UL defence
UL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
242
3 of 138
success rate
0.397
242
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.984
242
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.305
242
2 of 138
rush: success rate
0.418
242
82 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.504
242
7 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.127
242
68 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
242
76 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.429
242
35 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
71 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.280
242
69 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.651
242
53 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.245
242
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.462
242
6 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.455
242
126 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
96 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
102 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
242
86 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.200
242
121 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs