Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JMU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TROY
JMU
pass rate, all downs
50%59th
46%89th
pass rate, standard downs
40%82nd
41%76th
pass rate, 1st down
42%77th
46%46th
no-huddle share
96%12th
90%22nd
pass rate, passing downs
69%43rd
59%95th
pass rate, red zone
58%6th
33%92nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.364th
27.790th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs