Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MRSH wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
MRSH
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-12.5 (115th, offence 82nd, defence 134th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 210%, receiving 91%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GAST
MRSH
pass rate, all downs
46%88th
48%69th
pass rate, standard downs
41%77th
38%100th
pass rate, 1st down
43%70th
35%113th
no-huddle share
85%35th
85%32nd
pass rate, passing downs
61%84th
69%40th
pass rate, red zone
30%109th
43%45th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.462nd
29.560th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
MRSH offence
MRSH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.088
268
99 of 138
success rate
0.418
268
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.212
268
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.086
268
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.417
268
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
268
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.365
268
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
268
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.647
268
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
268
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
268
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
268
86 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.216
268
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
268
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
268
128 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
268
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
268
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
268
60 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
268
27 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
MRSH defence
MRSH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.332
269
137 of 138
success rate
0.472
269
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.322
269
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
269
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
269
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.802
269
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.533
269
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
269
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.819
269
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.544
269
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
269
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.276
269
122 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.152
269
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
269
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.174
269
118 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
269
12 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
269
10 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
43 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.700
269
62 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs