Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JMU wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GAST
JMU
pass rate, all downs
46%88th
46%89th
pass rate, standard downs
41%77th
41%76th
pass rate, 1st down
43%70th
46%46th
no-huddle share
85%35th
90%22nd
pass rate, passing downs
61%84th
59%95th
pass rate, red zone
30%109th
33%92nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.462nd
27.790th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs