Betting
Spread
GAST favouredMarket KENN −7.5Ours KENN −1.7
KENN favouredgap 5.8 toward GAST
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| GAST away | +7.5 | 24.0 | +240 | 28.2% | — |
| KENN home | -7.5 | 31.5 | -298 | 71.8% | — |
| Total | 55.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| GAST away | +1.5 | 26.9 | 45.3% | -6.0 |
| KENN home | -1.5 | 28.6 | 54.7% | +6.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| GAST away | +6.0 | 23.7 | 33.5% | -1.5 |
| KENN home | -6.0 | 29.9 | 66.5% | +1.5 |
| Total | 53.6 | | | -1.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | GAST | KENN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -3.295th | -4.2105th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.5107th | -0.989th |
| Card team rating | -4.898th | -5.2101st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -11.2111th | -11.7113th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.5101st | -0.8122nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.8107th | -1.1118th |
| Card line | KENN -1.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 47% | 6% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Cameran Brown GAST79 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.352
Completion67.6%
TD–INT6-4
Pass attempts, median game22
Pass yards, median game222
Rush yards, median game18
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.8
Rickie Collins KENN74 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.211
Completion68.1%
TD–INT2-1
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game173
Rush yards, median game49
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| GAST away | 4-0 | 100% | +14.5 | 2-2 | +4.8 |
| KENN home | 3-1 | 75% | +2.3 | 0-4 | -10.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Fifth Third Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| GAST | D. Murray Jr. RB | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Murray Jr is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Old Dominion on Saturday. |
| KENN | G. Bullock Jr. TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Bullock Jr. is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Jax State on Wednesday, October 7th. |