Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TROY wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
GASO
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-8.6 (103rd, offence 95th, defence 104th)
Returning production
6% (pass -4%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
TROY
Games
4
Plays per game
73.0
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-8.8 (104th, offence 112th, defence 84th)
Returning production
35% (pass 103%, rush 136%, receiving 12%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GASO
TROY
pass rate, all downs
62%3rd
50%59th
pass rate, standard downs
54%4th
40%82nd
pass rate, 1st down
56%4th
42%77th
no-huddle share
83%39th
96%12th
pass rate, passing downs
80%3rd
69%43rd
pass rate, red zone
40%63rd
58%6th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.594th
29.364th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GASO offence
GASO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
285
91 of 138
success rate
0.418
285
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
285
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.020
285
109 of 138
rush: success rate
0.440
285
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.767
285
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.197
285
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
285
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.450
285
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.457
285
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
285
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.080
285
73 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
285
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
285
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
285
76 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
285
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.105
285
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
285
117 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
285
8 of 138
TROY offence
TROY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
292
116 of 138
success rate
0.380
292
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.313
292
33 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.047
292
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.395
292
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.074
292
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
292
116 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
292
117 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.571
292
65 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.426
292
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.284
292
97 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.673
292
123 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.238
292
128 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
292
116 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.958
292
121 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.202
292
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.089
292
75 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.113
292
138 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
292
20 of 138
GASO defence
GASO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.086
255
81 of 138
success rate
0.373
255
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
255
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.001
255
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
255
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
255
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.283
255
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
255
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.568
255
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
255
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
255
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.545
255
36 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
255
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
255
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
255
92 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
255
109 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
255
117 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
255
52 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
255
26 of 138
TROY defence
TROY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.036
242
69 of 138
success rate
0.372
242
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.318
242
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.035
242
44 of 138
rush: success rate
0.366
242
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.023
242
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.075
242
55 of 138
pass: success rate
0.379
242
56 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.504
242
61 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.446
242
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.235
242
33 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.344
242
19 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.259
242
127 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.600
242
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
242
50 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.182
242
98 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.124
242
113 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
242
62 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
242
21 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs