Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MRSH wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
MRSH
Games
4
Plays per game
67.0
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-12.5 (115th, offence 82nd, defence 134th)
Returning production
99% (pass 100%, rush 210%, receiving 91%)
GASO
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-8.6 (103rd, offence 95th, defence 104th)
Returning production
6% (pass -4%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MRSH
GASO
pass rate, all downs
48%69th
62%3rd
pass rate, standard downs
38%100th
54%4th
pass rate, 1st down
35%113th
56%4th
no-huddle share
85%32nd
83%39th
pass rate, passing downs
69%40th
80%3rd
pass rate, red zone
43%45th
40%63rd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.560th
27.594th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MRSH offence
MRSH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.088
268
99 of 138
success rate
0.418
268
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.212
268
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.086
268
130 of 138
rush: success rate
0.417
268
94 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
268
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.365
268
43 of 138
pass: success rate
0.425
268
81 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.647
268
48 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
268
61 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
268
117 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
268
86 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.216
268
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
268
99 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.552
268
128 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
268
105 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
268
124 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
268
60 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
268
27 of 138
GASO offence
GASO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
285
91 of 138
success rate
0.418
285
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
285
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.020
285
109 of 138
rush: success rate
0.440
285
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.767
285
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.197
285
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
285
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.450
285
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.457
285
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
285
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.080
285
73 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
285
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
285
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
285
76 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
285
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.105
285
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
285
117 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
285
8 of 138
MRSH defence
MRSH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.332
269
137 of 138
success rate
0.472
269
130 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.322
269
105 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
269
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
269
123 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.802
269
29 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.533
269
138 of 138
pass: success rate
0.471
269
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.819
269
123 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.544
269
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
269
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.276
269
122 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.152
269
27 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.812
269
110 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.174
269
118 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
269
12 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.067
269
10 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
43 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.700
269
62 of 138
GASO defence
GASO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.086
255
81 of 138
success rate
0.373
255
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
255
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.001
255
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
255
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
255
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.283
255
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
255
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.568
255
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
255
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
255
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.545
255
36 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
255
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
255
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
255
92 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
255
109 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
255
117 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
255
52 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
255
26 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs