Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). GASO wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
GASO
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-8.6 (103rd, offence 95th, defence 104th)
Returning production
6% (pass -4%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
ODU
Games
4
Plays per game
59.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-7.9 (101st, offence 117th, defence 73rd)
Returning production
9% (pass -2%, rush 10%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GASO
ODU
pass rate, all downs
62%3rd
47%75th
pass rate, standard downs
54%4th
39%92nd
pass rate, 1st down
56%4th
42%72nd
no-huddle share
83%39th
86%30th
pass rate, passing downs
80%3rd
60%88th
pass rate, red zone
40%63rd
30%110th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.594th
28.973rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GASO offence
GASO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
285
91 of 138
success rate
0.418
285
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
285
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.020
285
109 of 138
rush: success rate
0.440
285
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.767
285
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.197
285
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
285
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.450
285
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.457
285
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
285
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.080
285
73 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
285
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
285
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
285
76 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
285
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.105
285
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
285
117 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
285
8 of 138
ODU offence
ODU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.100
239
135 of 138
success rate
0.310
239
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.483
239
5 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.076
239
126 of 138
rush: success rate
0.331
239
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.298
239
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
239
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.290
239
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.677
239
37 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.299
239
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
239
63 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.613
239
138 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.315
239
138 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.300
239
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.913
239
124 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.243
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.205
239
138 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
239
25 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
239
61 of 138
GASO defence
GASO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.086
255
81 of 138
success rate
0.373
255
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
255
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.001
255
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
255
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
255
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.283
255
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
255
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.568
255
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
255
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
255
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.545
255
36 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
255
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
255
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
255
92 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
255
109 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
255
117 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
255
52 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
255
26 of 138
ODU defence
ODU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.017
298
44 of 138
success rate
0.339
298
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.242
298
79 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.106
298
25 of 138
rush: success rate
0.318
298
18 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.963
298
85 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.102
298
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.361
298
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.578
298
81 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
298
13 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
298
78 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.389
298
24 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
298
104 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.619
298
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.333
298
66 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.164
298
76 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.128
298
116 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
298
11 of 138
opponent average starting field position
66.000
298
4 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs