Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JXST wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
GASO
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-8.6 (103rd, offence 95th, defence 104th)
Returning production
6% (pass -4%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
JXST
Games
5
Plays per game
61.6
Drives per game
9.6
SP+
-2.2 (77th, offence 70th, defence 87th)
Returning production
50% (pass 76%, rush 42%, receiving 49%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GASO
JXST
pass rate, all downs
62%3rd
46%90th
pass rate, standard downs
54%4th
41%71st
pass rate, 1st down
56%4th
49%26th
no-huddle share
83%39th
41%89th
pass rate, passing downs
80%3rd
58%97th
pass rate, red zone
40%63rd
32%99th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.594th
30.629th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GASO offence
GASO offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.103
285
91 of 138
success rate
0.418
285
92 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
285
97 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.020
285
109 of 138
rush: success rate
0.440
285
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.767
285
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.197
285
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
285
95 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.450
285
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.457
285
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.326
285
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.080
285
73 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.138
285
35 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
285
65 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
285
76 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
285
121 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.105
285
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
285
117 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.000
285
8 of 138
JXST offence
JXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.204
308
58 of 138
success rate
0.481
308
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.192
308
89 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
308
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
308
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
308
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.383
308
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.507
308
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.500
308
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.524
308
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
308
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.122
308
70 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
308
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.815
308
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.286
308
107 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
308
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
308
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
308
57 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.300
308
5 of 138
GASO defence
GASO defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.086
255
81 of 138
success rate
0.373
255
54 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.175
255
48 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.001
255
59 of 138
rush: success rate
0.375
255
50 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.795
255
27 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.283
255
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.391
255
68 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.568
255
77 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
255
38 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
255
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.545
255
36 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.250
255
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
255
47 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
255
92 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.188
255
109 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.133
255
117 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
255
52 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.100
255
26 of 138
JXST defence
JXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
324
70 of 138
success rate
0.423
324
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.046
324
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.087
324
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
324
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
324
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
324
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
324
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
324
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
324
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.236
324
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.915
324
84 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
324
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
324
118 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
324
79 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
324
57 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
324
71 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
324
53 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
324
108 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs