Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JMU wins about 76% of the time at a number like ours.
CCU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.4 (112th, offence 96th, defence 119th)
Returning production
15% (pass 12%, rush 16%, receiving 17%)
JMU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 48th, defence 27th)
Returning production
8% (pass 9%, rush 7%, receiving 9%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CCU
JMU
pass rate, all downs
53%30th
46%89th
pass rate, standard downs
42%64th
41%76th
pass rate, 1st down
40%93rd
46%46th
no-huddle share
71%60th
90%22nd
pass rate, passing downs
73%28th
59%95th
pass rate, red zone
53%13th
33%92nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.8106th
27.790th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CCU offence
CCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
262
69 of 138
success rate
0.412
262
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
262
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
262
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
262
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
262
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
262
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
262
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.998
262
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
262
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
262
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.414
262
27 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
262
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
262
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.583
262
90 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
262
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.126
262
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
108 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
262
59 of 138
JMU offence
JMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.293
269
26 of 138
success rate
0.476
269
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.223
269
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.245
269
26 of 138
rush: success rate
0.497
269
27 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.005
269
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.368
269
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.458
269
57 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.527
269
75 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.525
269
42 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.338
269
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.231
269
54 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.154
269
54 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.773
269
54 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.562
269
36 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
269
17 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
269
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
269
22 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.900
269
124 of 138
CCU defence
CCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.095
264
83 of 138
success rate
0.451
264
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.939
264
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.005
264
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
264
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.554
264
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.446
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
264
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
264
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
264
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
264
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
264
112 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.123
264
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
264
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.160
264
57 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.148
264
46 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
264
67 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
264
37 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
264
47 of 138
JMU defence
JMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.197
287
1 of 138
success rate
0.275
287
1 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.380
287
120 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.142
287
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.261
287
2 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.061
287
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.130
287
9 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
287
3 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.687
287
108 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.311
287
1 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
287
30 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.369
287
22 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.196
287
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
287
112 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.478
287
18 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
287
89 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.118
287
106 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.059
287
63 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
287
82 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs