Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARST wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
CCU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.4 (112th, offence 96th, defence 119th)
Returning production
15% (pass 12%, rush 16%, receiving 17%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARST
CCU
pass rate, all downs
47%78th
53%30th
pass rate, standard downs
40%86th
42%64th
pass rate, 1st down
43%69th
40%93rd
no-huddle share
33%99th
71%60th
pass rate, passing downs
67%52nd
73%28th
pass rate, red zone
32%102nd
53%13th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.54th
26.8106th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
CCU offence
CCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
262
69 of 138
success rate
0.412
262
100 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.429
262
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.102
262
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
262
76 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
262
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
262
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.383
262
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.998
262
4 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.440
262
118 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
262
35 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.414
262
27 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
262
84 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
262
95 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.583
262
90 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.195
262
130 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.126
262
128 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
108 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.100
262
59 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
CCU defence
CCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.095
264
83 of 138
success rate
0.451
264
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.939
264
2 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.005
264
57 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
264
105 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.554
264
8 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.446
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
264
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
264
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.505
264
115 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
264
60 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
264
112 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.123
264
8 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.810
264
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.160
264
57 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.148
264
46 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.098
264
67 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
264
37 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
264
47 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs