Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARST wins about 52% of the time at a number like ours.
GAST
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-11.2 (111th, offence 85th, defence 125th)
Returning production
47% (pass 64%, rush 127%, receiving 28%)
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
GAST
ARST
pass rate, all downs
46%88th
47%78th
pass rate, standard downs
41%77th
40%86th
pass rate, 1st down
43%70th
43%69th
no-huddle share
85%35th
33%99th
pass rate, passing downs
61%84th
67%52nd
pass rate, red zone
30%109th
32%102nd
seconds per play (own drives)
29.462nd
33.54th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
GAST offence
GAST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
286
39 of 138
success rate
0.479
286
39 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.296
286
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.184
286
43 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
286
77 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.019
286
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.389
286
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.520
286
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.560
286
67 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.491
286
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.444
286
6 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.301
286
40 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
286
82 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.632
286
114 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.345
286
44 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.105
286
18 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.052
286
13 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.052
286
64 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
286
86 of 138
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
GAST defence
GAST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.024
242
66 of 138
success rate
0.380
242
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
94 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
242
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.409
242
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.187
242
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.057
242
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.365
242
40 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.383
242
28 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
242
70 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.256
242
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.091
242
107 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.209
242
87 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
242
138 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.227
242
59 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
242
88 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.116
242
101 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
242
69 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.400
242
39 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs