Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARST wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
KENN
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-11.7 (113th, offence 108th, defence 101st)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -4%, receiving 13%)
ARST
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.0
SP+
-9.5 (107th, offence 93rd, defence 110th)
Returning production
30% (pass 7%, rush -246%, receiving 54%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
KENN
ARST
pass rate, all downs
50%51st
47%78th
pass rate, standard downs
47%28th
40%86th
pass rate, 1st down
53%12th
43%69th
no-huddle share
85%34th
33%99th
pass rate, passing downs
58%99th
67%52nd
pass rate, red zone
32%97th
32%102nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2118th
33.54th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
KENN offence
KENN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.097
272
95 of 138
success rate
0.460
272
53 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.051
272
133 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.157
272
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.500
272
25 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.006
272
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.103
272
108 of 138
pass: success rate
0.438
272
71 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.128
272
138 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.534
272
36 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.289
272
93 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.314
272
38 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.197
272
99 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
272
28 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.167
272
57 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
272
68 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
272
62 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.055
272
73 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.200
272
29 of 138
ARST offence
ARST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.152
235
72 of 138
success rate
0.485
235
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.147
235
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.237
235
29 of 138
rush: success rate
0.504
235
22 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.962
235
72 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.124
235
102 of 138
pass: success rate
0.472
235
48 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.402
235
113 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.555
235
23 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
235
90 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.371
235
30 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
235
42 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
235
74 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.435
235
96 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
235
67 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.072
235
36 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.068
235
106 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.700
235
85 of 138
KENN defence
KENN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.151
251
102 of 138
success rate
0.426
251
95 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.089
251
22 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.078
251
87 of 138
rush: success rate
0.404
251
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.901
251
66 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.264
251
100 of 138
pass: success rate
0.462
251
112 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
251
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.486
251
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.295
251
85 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
251
111 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.191
251
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.857
251
125 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.826
251
102 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
251
3 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
251
32 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.032
251
6 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.000
251
49 of 138
ARST defence
ARST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.161
256
111 of 138
success rate
0.453
256
120 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.244
256
80 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.025
256
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
256
116 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.890
256
60 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.462
256
133 of 138
pass: success rate
0.455
256
110 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.804
256
121 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
256
112 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
256
110 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
256
126 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.136
256
16 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
256
89 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.476
256
76 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
256
16 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
256
51 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.700
256
103 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs