Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LSU wins about 98% of the time at a number like ours.
LT
Games
3
Plays per game
64.3
Drives per game
13.7
SP+
-9.8 (108th, offence 104th, defence 101st)
Returning production
64% (pass 99%, rush 79%, receiving 44%)
LSU
Games
4
Plays per game
79.5
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
21.3 (10th, offence 22nd, defence 4th)
Returning production
21% (pass 13%, rush 40%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LT
LSU
pass rate, all downs
50%53rd
44%101st
pass rate, standard downs
42%69th
39%87th
pass rate, 1st down
47%37th
45%54th
no-huddle share
67%65th
86%28th
pass rate, passing downs
66%55th
56%105th
pass rate, red zone
41%57th
35%86th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.986th
26.4115th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LT offence
LT offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.015
193
118 of 138
success rate
0.337
193
134 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.443
193
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.077
193
127 of 138
rush: success rate
0.320
193
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.127
193
17 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.139
193
96 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
193
123 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.797
193
19 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.373
193
135 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.269
193
107 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.648
193
124 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.227
193
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
193
134 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
193
24 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.181
193
123 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.114
193
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
193
102 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.700
193
132 of 138
LSU offence
LSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.236
318
48 of 138
success rate
0.478
318
40 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.282
318
47 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.174
318
49 of 138
rush: success rate
0.460
318
61 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.958
318
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.345
318
47 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
318
35 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.718
318
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
318
51 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.398
318
18 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
318
79 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
318
44 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
318
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.061
318
61 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
318
103 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.088
318
71 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
318
124 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.400
318
128 of 138
LT defence
LT defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.012
219
45 of 138
success rate
0.347
219
28 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
219
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.017
219
52 of 138
rush: success rate
0.325
219
24 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.018
219
96 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.119
219
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.384
219
59 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.686
219
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.414
219
40 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
219
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.063
219
5 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.230
219
110 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
219
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.722
219
94 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.242
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.178
219
136 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.064
219
80 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.300
219
1 of 138
LSU defence
LSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.166
241
4 of 138
success rate
0.303
241
5 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.184
241
53 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.155
241
16 of 138
rush: success rate
0.330
241
28 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.727
241
20 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
241
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.281
241
4 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.563
241
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.354
241
7 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
241
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.200
241
9 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.240
241
113 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
241
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.857
241
104 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
241
131 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.154
241
130 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.071
241
98 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.300
241
110 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs