Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). M-OH wins about 72% of the time at a number like ours.
AKR
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-23.1 (132nd, offence 130th, defence 130th)
Returning production
92% (pass 87%, rush 102%, receiving 92%)
M-OH
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-4.3 (88th, offence 86th, defence 91st)
Returning production
14% (pass -2%, rush 33%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
AKR
M-OH
pass rate, all downs
56%21st
52%40th
pass rate, standard downs
46%35th
41%72nd
pass rate, 1st down
50%21st
47%40th
no-huddle share
98%3rd
22%109th
pass rate, passing downs
77%12th
74%24th
pass rate, red zone
48%25th
22%127th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.181st
30.533rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
AKR offence
AKR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.020
262
117 of 138
success rate
0.443
262
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.981
262
137 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.099
262
79 of 138
rush: success rate
0.513
262
19 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.709
262
129 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.027
262
117 of 138
pass: success rate
0.410
262
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.262
262
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.500
262
59 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.308
262
74 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.619
262
12 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
262
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
262
27 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
262
69 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
262
131 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.122
262
126 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
262
119 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.400
262
4 of 138
M-OH offence
M-OH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.239
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.430
235
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.426
235
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
235
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
235
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
235
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.619
235
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.487
235
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
235
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
235
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
235
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.871
235
100 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
235
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
235
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.909
235
70 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
235
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
235
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
235
24 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.000
235
63 of 138
AKR defence
AKR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.241
246
129 of 138
success rate
0.431
246
98 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.372
246
115 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.045
246
76 of 138
rush: success rate
0.436
246
101 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.878
246
55 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.494
246
136 of 138
pass: success rate
0.419
246
90 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.910
246
134 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.482
246
94 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.316
246
102 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.891
246
73 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
246
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
246
55 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.792
246
99 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
246
50 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
246
37 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
246
91 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.400
246
22 of 138
M-OH defence
M-OH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.179
260
116 of 138
success rate
0.450
260
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.316
260
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.065
260
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
260
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.985
260
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.372
260
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
260
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.529
260
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
260
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.860
260
69 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
260
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
260
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
260
129 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
260
2 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.065
260
9 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
260
13 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
260
80 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs