Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CMU wins about 47% of the time at a number like ours.
M-OH
Games
4
Plays per game
58.8
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-4.3 (88th, offence 86th, defence 91st)
Returning production
14% (pass -2%, rush 33%, receiving 13%)
CMU
Games
4
Plays per game
57.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
-18.7 (129th, offence 136th, defence 100th)
Returning production
54% (pass 9%, rush 123%, receiving 65%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
M-OH
CMU
pass rate, all downs
52%40th
35%133rd
pass rate, standard downs
41%72nd
25%133rd
pass rate, 1st down
47%40th
32%121st
no-huddle share
22%109th
2%137th
pass rate, passing downs
74%24th
56%107th
pass rate, red zone
22%127th
20%129th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.533rd
32.69th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
M-OH offence
M-OH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.239
235
43 of 138
success rate
0.430
235
82 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.426
235
12 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
235
111 of 138
rush: success rate
0.389
235
111 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.877
235
92 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.619
235
6 of 138
pass: success rate
0.487
235
37 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
235
11 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
235
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.301
235
83 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.871
235
100 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.212
235
116 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
235
104 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.909
235
70 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
235
79 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
235
115 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
235
24 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.000
235
63 of 138
CMU offence
CMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
228
123 of 138
success rate
0.351
228
129 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.196
228
87 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.135
228
68 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
228
102 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.107
228
22 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.180
228
137 of 138
pass: success rate
0.263
228
138 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.423
228
107 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.395
228
131 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.254
228
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.181
228
63 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.129
228
22 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.826
228
25 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
228
119 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
228
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
228
87 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.066
228
99 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.400
228
51 of 138
M-OH defence
M-OH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.179
260
116 of 138
success rate
0.450
260
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.316
260
102 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.065
260
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
260
86 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.985
260
91 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.372
260
123 of 138
pass: success rate
0.483
260
125 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.529
260
62 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.509
260
117 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
260
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.860
260
69 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.217
260
98 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
260
101 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.700
260
129 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.104
260
2 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.065
260
9 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.038
260
13 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
260
80 of 138
CMU defence
CMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.166
264
114 of 138
success rate
0.473
264
132 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.118
264
29 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.118
264
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.496
264
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
264
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.153
264
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
264
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.329
264
17 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.522
264
126 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.366
264
126 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
264
137 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.135
264
14 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.933
264
136 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
264
70 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.144
264
42 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.068
264
14 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
264
107 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.300
264
19 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs